Sustainable Agriculture in Western Canada:
Planning for Droughts Using the Past

This Research is Sponsored By: NSERC AFIF

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Summary

Droughts affect virtually all of the western Canadian economy and environment. Drought-related losses in western Canada exceeded 1.8 billion dollars in 1988 alone, while continuing uncertainty in drought prediction contributes to crop insurance payouts of over $175 million per year. Less economically tangible, but equally important, environmental degredation also occurs as a result of drought-induced wetlands loss and forest fires. Yet despite the high economic and social costs of droughts, and the potential savings that could be derived from better drought prediction, there are few avenues presently available to estimate the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in western Canada. Consequently, this project will use new and standard paleoecological techniques to obtain highly resolved fossil records of drought from lakes located in the main agricultural regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Recent research has demonstrated that lakewater chemistry and biological community composition are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and the balance between precipitation and evaporation. As climate warms or dries, lakes become more chemically concentrated, leading to marked changes in the aquatic biota. Similarly, increased precipitation, or lower temerature, leads to a freshening of waters, and the recovery of salt-intolerant species. Therefore, by understanding basic organismal biology, and by examining lake sediments for the buried remains of biota, it is possible to accurately reconstruct past climatic regimes. Our paleoecological reconstructions will be incorporated into novel models specifically developed for use with long-term climatic data and which will be used to predict drought frequency, duration and intensity over the next 5-50 years. Predictions of drought occurence will provide a rigorous basis for future agriculture, insurance and resource management decisions.

Program Objectives:

• Reconstruct changes in salinity of three prairie lakes over the past 800 years.
• Calibrate lakewater salinity with known indices of drought severity
• Quantify the frequency, intensity and duration of drought over the past 800 years
• Document how drought occurrence impacts water quality
• Develop predictive models to estimate drought occurrence during the next 5-50 years

For Further Information Contact:
Dr. P. Leavitt Dept. of Biology University of Regina peter.leavitt@uregina.ca	Dr. G. Chen Dept. Math/Stats University of Regina gchen@math.uregina.ca

Related Sites

[North American Programs] [International Programs] [Journals] [Agriculture]

Limnology, Paleolimnology and Climate Sites

Universities

• Alaska Quaternary Center, University of Alaska
• Aquatic Ecology Group, University of Toronto
• Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, McGill University
• Delta Marsh Field Station
• Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona
• Dr. D.W. Schindler, University of Alberta
• Dr. L.C. Cwynar, University of New Brunswick
• Dr. L. Jackson, University of Calgary
• Dr. M. Binford, University of Florida
• Dr. M.S.V. Douglas , University of Toronto
• Dr. R. Pienitz, Universite Laval
• Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University
• Experimental Lakes Area
• Freshwater Science, Okanagan University College
• George Lake Entomological Field Station
• Global Climate Research Group, Brown University
• INSTAAR, University of Colorado
• Institute for Quaternary Studies, University of Maine
• Kananaskis Field Station, University of Calgary
• Limnological Research Center, University of Minnesota
• Limnology Laboratory, University of Regina
• Meanook Biological Research Station, University of Alberta
• PEARL, Queen's University
• Links for Paleoclimate and Climate Change, University of Miami
• Paleoenvironmental Research Unit, University College Galway, Ireland
• Paleolimnology, University of Indiana
• Quaternary Paleoenvironmental and Paleoclimate Studies, Colby College
• Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington
• Quaternary Sciences Institute, University of Waterloo
• UCLA PISCES Laboratory, University of California
  

North American Organizations and Programs

• Canadian Global Change Program
• Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
• Canadian Quaternary Association
• Department of Fisheries and Oceans
• Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network
• Geological Survey of Canada
• NASA Global Change Master Directory
• NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
• Organization of Biological Field Stations
• Palliser Triangle Global Change Project
• Past Global Change Project
• Post Glacial Climate Change in Prairie Ecozones
• Quaternary Environments Network
• US Nation Drought Mitigation Center
• US Global Change Research Program
  

International Organizations and Programs

• Atmospheric Research and Information Center, Manchester, UK
• Environment Australia
• Environmental Change Research Center, University College London
• German Global Change Research Program
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
• The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
• The Netherlands Global Change Research Program
• United Nations Environment Program
• Climate Variability and Predictability, World Climate Research Programme
• World Meteorolgical Organization
  

Journals and Reports

• Climate Dynamics
• Climate Research
• International Journal of Climatology
• Journal of Paleolimnology
• Journal of Quaternary Science
• List of On-Line Earth Science Journals
• Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change
• Nature
• Quaternary Australasia
• Quaternary International
• Quaternary Perspectives
• Science
• World Climate Report
  

Agricultural Sites

• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
• Agriculture and Climate Change, Climatic Impact Center, Austrailia
• Alberta Agriculture and Food
• Canadian Federation of Agriculture
• Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research
• Crop Science, University of Saskatchewan
• Department of Rural Development, University of Alberta
• Faculty of Agriculture and Food Science, University of Manitoba
• Farm Service Agency, USA
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
• Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Program (PFRA)
• Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food
• Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education
• US Department of Agriculture, Wind Erosion Unit
• Western Producer
  

Groups Involved with this Project

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agricultural and Financial Services Corporation Alberta Agriculture and Food Canadian Plains Research Center Canadian Wheat Board Canadian Wildlife Service Environment Canada Geological Survey of Canada Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation

Manitoba Hydro NSERC Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Program Riding Mountain National Park Sask. Agriculture and Food Sask. Grazing and Pasture Technology Program Sask. Wetland Conservation Corporation Sask. Environment and Resource Management Sask. Crop Insurance Corporation Sask. Water Corporation

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